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Evidence & Practice · 20

Evidence & Practice

Before Serious Misconduct: Can Police Data Identify Harmful Team Cultures Earlier?

01The problem

Individual misconduct processes can miss a harmful micro-culture when weak warning signals sit in different organisational systems but repeatedly converge around the same team.

02What the evidence says

Metropolitan Police data produced evidence of a causal peer effect in recorded misconduct allegations.
Quispe-Torreblanca and Stewart (2019)
Operation Hotton documented isolation, limited senior supervision and failures to challenge within a team where harmful conduct became established.
IOPC, Operation Hotton

03If we act

If we combine historical team membership with complaints, driving standards, use of force and misconduct data using exposure-adjusted comparisons,forces can test whether independent risk signals cluster around particular teams.
If we validate unusual patterns through incident review, body-worn video and supervisory context,analytical flags remain prompts for investigation rather than findings against officers.

police-cultureprofessional-standardsmisconduct use-of-force evidence-based-policing leadership

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Evidence & Practice

What is a PSPO, and can it reduce street harassment?

01The problem

Councils and police are using PSPOs against public sexual harassment, but published enforcement counts are easier to find than evidence that women's actual exposure to harassment has fallen.

02What the evidence says

The College of Policing reports 30 Operation Soundwood deployments, 29 PSPO breaches and 19 breaches involving inappropriate behaviour towards women and girls, while classifying the practice as Untested.
College of Policing (22 September 2025)
Redbridge has a borough-wide Public Sexual Harassment PSPO in force from 25 November 2024 to 24 November 2027, covering behaviours including following, persistent unwanted questioning and sexual or obscene comments, propositions or gestures.
London Borough of Redbridge
A 2023 systematic review found only 13 original empirical studies across 24 civil preventive powers and identified no empirical study specifically focused on PSPO policing in its search period.
Rodgers (2023), Policing: A Journal of Policy and Practice

03If we act

If we define observable prohibited conduct and publish the local problem analysis before making the order,officers and the public can understand what is prohibited and the council can later test whether the problem changed.
If we measure women's experiences before and after implementation, alongside reporting and enforcement data,leaders can distinguish increased detection or reporting from a genuine reduction in underlying harassment.
If we use an explicit crime-versus-PSPO decision protocol after the commencement of section 4B,criminal conduct is less likely to be downgraded simply because a local civil-preventive enforcement route is available.

evidence-based-policinganti-social-behaviourviolence-against-women-and-girlsneighbourhood-policingpolice-powers

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Evidence & Practice

Police intuition: how to test a good copper’s nose

01The problem

Policing recognises the 'copper's nose' as a form of experienced judgement but has little objective evidence showing whether reputed experts are more accurate, what cues they use or whether those skills can be transferred.

02What the evidence says

Quin's 2025 Cambridge PhD proposes a substantive theory built around Mediating, Updating and Navigating, using primary interview data from officers in England and Wales.
Quin, University of Cambridge (2025)
The thesis proposes future empirical measurement of elements including perceptual ability and interoceptive awareness rather than claiming those mechanisms have already been validated.
Quin, University of Cambridge (2025)
Quin's later CREST account says officers themselves recognised that the copper's nose can be wrong and links development to feedback, reflective practice, experience and professional curiosity.
Quin, CREST (15 October 2025)

03If we act

If we test officers reputed to have strong intuitive judgement against objective, domain-specific performance measures,forces can distinguish demonstrable expertise from reputation, confidence and selectively remembered successes.
If we capture the cues and reasoning used by demonstrably high-performing officers and test whether those cues predict relevant outcomes,tacit knowledge becomes inspectable before it is incorporated into training.
If we evaluate structured proactive exposure and expert mentorship while recording false positives as well as successful detections,leaders can see whether training improves discrimination rather than simply increasing suspicion.

evidence-based-policingdecision-makingpolice-trainingprofessional-curiosityresearch

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Evidence & Practice

The Right to Understand

01The problem

Adults who experienced serious violence, sexual abuse or comparable traumatic crime as children may never have understood what police, prosecutors, courts or children's services established and decided. Existing routes do not guarantee a joined-up chronology, explanation and support.

02What the evidence says

IICSA found that childhood records can help survivors understand their past, but that procedural obstacles, poor communication and unexplained redactions can compound distress.
Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse final report (2022)
In the ICO's self-selecting survey of care-record access, 71% reported poor communication, 69% delay, 59% insufficient information and 87% unanswered questions or concerns. The sample describes failure modes, not population prevalence.
Information Commissioner's Office survey analysis (2024)
Participatory research with care-experienced people found that records could support identity and reduce self-blame, whilst also provoking anxiety, anger, relationship strain and renewed trauma.
Hoyle, Shepherd, Lomas and Flinn (2020)

03If we act

If we pilot a free local and online route with a named case guide, binding response standards and independent review,applicants receive one accountable process rather than having to reconstruct their childhood case agency by agency.
If we offer staged, face-to-face or remote explanation with independent support chosen by the applicant,adults control the timing and format whilst foreseeable disclosure harms are reduced and monitored.
If we prepare serious child-victim records on the assumption that a later explanation may be requested,future applicants encounter a preserved decision record and plain-language outcome rather than avoidable gaps created decades earlier.

victimschild sexual abuseserious violencetrauma-informed practicecriminal justicecare recordsadoptiondata protection

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Evidence & Practice

Self-Selection Policing: What Minor Offences Can Reveal

01The problem

Police often treat a minor offence as the end of a small incident even where that behaviour may contain useful information about wider offending.

02What the evidence says

Roach and Pease developed self-selection policing as a complementary method for identifying active serious offenders through minor offences they commit.
Roach & Pease (2016)
Studies of disqualified drivers and failures to produce driving documents found those groups had more extensive and recent offending histories than comparison groups.
Roach (2007; 2017/2019)
The evidence supports using selected trigger offences to justify further enquiry, not treating the minor offence as proof that the person is a serious offender.
Roach — Those Who Do Big Bad Things also Usually Do Little Bad Things (2007)

03If we act

If we identify candidate trigger offences from local and published evidence rather than officer intuition,the approach remains behaviour-based and testable.
If we measure the positive predictive value and false-positive rate of each trigger,forces know whether the extra enquiries are proportionate to what they uncover.
If we test the misconduct analogy as research before turning it into a professional-standards rule,forces avoid importing an offender finding into workforce decisions without evidence.

self-selection-policing evidence-based-policingcrime-preventioncriminologyprofessional-standards

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Evidence & Practice

Drug policy: where the evidence is strong, and where it is not

01The problem

Drug policy is often presented as a choice between being tough on drugs and legalising them. In reality there are several different choices. The evidence is strongest for some forms of treatment and much less certain about the effects of changing possession laws.

02What the evidence says

Across 19 eligible cohorts, death rates were lower while people were receiving methadone or buprenorphine treatment than while they were out of treatment.
BMJ systematic review and meta-analysis
The Home Office found that differences in drug use between countries could not be explained simply by how tough their drug laws were. It also warned against claiming that Portugal's results were caused by decriminalisation alone.
Home Office, Drugs: international comparators
A 2025 Home Office review found limited evidence that drug-law enforcement reduces serious violence and identified no UK-based studies from which to estimate the effect here.
Home Office systematic review, 2025

03If we act

If we focus drug enforcement on violence, exploitation, dangerous drug markets and people causing the most harm,police activity is tied more closely to harm reduced rather than simply numbers of arrests, searches or seizures
If we use diversion only where support is actually available, and track what happens after the referral,forces can see whether diversion changes drug use, repeat police contact or reoffending instead of assuming it works
If we make it easier for people encountered by police to reach proven treatment and overdose-prevention services,people at high risk of heroin or opioid overdose have a better chance of reaching interventions with the strongest evidence of benefit

drug-policyevidence-based-policingdrug-treatmentharm-reductiondiversionpublic-health

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Evidence & Practice

Procedural Justice: The Police Leader’s Guide to Fair Encounters

01The problem

Police can exercise a lawful power correctly and still damage legitimacy if the person experiences the encounter as arbitrary, disrespectful or unexplained.

02What the evidence says

College of Policing guidance says procedural justice is strongly associated with police legitimacy and identifies voice, neutrality, respect and trustworthy motives as the core behaviours.
College of Policing (22 April 2025)
A three-city randomised hot-spots trial found intensive procedural-justice training changed officer behaviour, improved some resident perceptions and reduced crime in treatment locations.
Weisburd et al., PNAS (2022)
Research in an English constabulary found officers' identification with their organisation was strongly associated with perceived procedural justice from senior management and, in turn, with self-legitimacy.
Bradford and Quinton (2014)

03If we act

If we train and supervise voice, neutrality, respect and trustworthy motives as observable behaviours rather than slogans,forces can audit whether procedural justice is actually present in encounters.
If we focus quality assurance on high-impact encounters such as stop and search, custody and use of force,improvement effort is concentrated where poor treatment carries the greatest legitimacy cost.
If we apply the same principles to internal management decisions,leadership practice is aligned with the organisational conditions associated with officers' support for democratic policing.

procedural justice police legitimacy public confidence stop and search police leadership evidence-based policingtrainingpolicing

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Evidence & Practice

Domestic abuse risk grading: what supervisors should challenge about ‘medium’

01The problem

If medium becomes the default whenever an officer is uncertain, domestic abuse grading stops separating genuinely different levels of risk and the supervisory review becomes less useful.

02What the evidence says

College of Policing APP says domestic abuse grading should use structured professional judgement and that responsibility for the grade ultimately remains with the assessor.
College of Policing APP (updated 30 March 2026)
A 2019 study using data from an unnamed large UK metropolitan police force found DASH had limited predictive accuracy, with most serious-harm revictimisation cases graded standard or medium rather than high.
Turner, Medina-Ariza and Brown (2019)
An independent 2026 DARA study found repeat victimisation in 31% of standard, 44% of medium and 58% of high cases in its sample, but did not claim predictive validation or causality.
Policing (14 July 2026)

03If we act

If we require the assessor to explain what makes the case standard, medium or high rather than treating medium as the safe default,the grade carries more information and supervisors can identify where two cases genuinely differ.
If we review the reasoning and safeguarding plan together rather than reviewing the grade in isolation,supervision tests whether the action follows from the identified risk instead of rewarding defensive grading.
If we reassess when circumstances change and record what change would trigger a different grade,the assessment remains dynamic and gives the next officer a clearer basis for action.

domestic abuse safeguardingDARArisk assessmentviolence against womenNational Decision ModelCollege of Policingdecision-making

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Evidence & Practice

ASB Powers: A Frontline Guide to Notices and Orders

01The problem

Frontline officers can overlook ASB notices and orders or use them inconsistently, while the 2026 legislative changes create an additional risk of confusing enacted future powers with powers already in force.

02What the evidence says

The 2014 Act remains the main operational statutory framework for CPNs, civil injunctions, CBOs and closure powers.
Anti-social Behaviour, Crime and Policing Act 2014
Adult bail amendments under the Sentencing Act 2026 commenced on 22 March 2026 and narrow the exceptions to bail where there is no real prospect of immediate custody.
Ministry of Justice circular (19 March 2026)
Respect Orders are enacted in the Crime and Policing Act 2026 but the Home Office has not yet announced their operational start date.
Home Office ASB factsheet (19 May 2026)

03If we act

If we use a current force reference sheet that separates powers in force from enacted changes awaiting commencement,officers avoid applying future law prematurely or missing powers already available.
If we match the power and proposed conditions to the precise statutory test and evidence,applications are more defensible and restrictions remain proportionate to the harm being addressed.
If we combine restrictive orders with safeguarding, housing or treatment action where the problem involves vulnerability,the intervention manages the immediate behaviour without simply transferring the harm elsewhere.

anti-social behaviourcivil orderscriminal behaviour ordercommunity protection noticeclosure ordersafeguardingretail crimeneighbourhood policing

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Evidence & Practice

AI in policing: what leaders should check before approving a tool

01The problem

Police leaders are asked to approve, govern and publicly defend AI tools they were never trained to understand — and the accountability for what those tools do cannot be delegated to the supplier.

02What the evidence says

AI predicts rather than understands, so it produces confident, fluent, wrong answers — and a model trained on historic policing data reproduces historic disproportionality with an air of mathematical objectivity.
Samsung staff pasted confidential material into a public chatbot three times in 2023 and it left the company for good — what goes into a free AI tool may be stored abroad and used to train future models.
Samsung leaks (2023)
Using AI lawfully with personal data requires a Data Protection Impact Assessment and negotiated data-residency terms; the ICO's guidance is the authoritative UK reference.
Information Commissioner's Office

03If we act

If we use AI to narrow, draft and prioritise but never to decide, keeping a trained human able to overturn the output,the force gets the speed of AI on high-volume work without indefensible decisions reaching the public.
If we complete a DPIA and negotiate data-residency, retention and no-training terms before any tool is deployed,the force's data stays under contract rather than leaking for good, and leaders can defend the tool at a scrutiny panel.
If we brief every officer to treat a public AI tool like a postcard, not a sealed envelope,sensitive material such as a victim's account never leaves the building unrecoverably.

artificial intelligenceaimachine learningtechnologydatasurveillance leadershippolicingpolicepolicy

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Evidence & Practice

PoliceAI: What is it, why do we need it, and who runs it?

01The problem

AI tools are reaching the 43 forces of England and Wales faster than the rules governing them, and most leaders will meet them through a press release that answers none of the operational questions.

02What the evidence says

PoliceAI is a national centre hosted by the College of Policing and backed by £75m over three years to identify, test and scale AI tools across policing in England and Wales.
Home Office — PoliceAI launch (10 June 2026)
The Home Office reports an early Cumbria trial in which 800 hours of footage in a kidnapping case were reviewed in three hours; this is a government programme claim, not a published independent evaluation.
Home Office — PoliceAI launch (10 June 2026)
HMICFRS found inaccurate material about a non-existent football fixture in West Midlands Police's process; one interviewee attributed it to Microsoft Copilot. A Commons committee later criticised reliance on inaccurate and unverified information.
HMICFRS — West Midlands Police safety advisory group inspection (2026)

03If we act

If we demand a tool's measured error rate and independent assessment before it goes live,the force can show a court exactly how the tool was tested and who is accountable when it is wrong.
If we audit the general-purpose AI staff already use and put training and policy around it,the force catches the quiet tools before they write false material that reaches operational decisions or a court.
If we start deliberate adoption with redaction,officers get large, immediate time savings on checkable output, where an error is a privacy slip rather than a wrongful lead.

policeaiartificial intelligence predictive-policing surveillance facial recognitiondatatechnologyleadershippolicingpolicepolicy

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Evidence & Practice

Neighbourhood Policing Guarantee: Confidence and Crime Need Different Measures

01The problem

The Neighbourhood Policing Guarantee contains several interventions with different mechanisms, but a single performance narrative can obscure whether each element is being delivered and measured correctly.

02What the evidence says

The Guarantee combines named local officers, dedicated teams and hot-spot/town-centre patrol with a commitment to 13,000 additional neighbourhood personnel by 2029.
Home Office
High-quality neighbourhood policing can improve public confidence when visibility, engagement and problem-solving are implemented together.
College of Policing (2025)
Hot-spots policing concentrates short patrol visits in small high-crime locations and has a strong crime-reduction evidence base.
College of Policing

03If we act

If we separate neighbourhood-confidence and hot-spots-crime measures in local performance frameworks,leaders can tell which part of the Guarantee is working rather than averaging unlike interventions together.
If we audit hot-spots dosage and geographic fidelity rather than counting generic patrol hours,the delivered tactic remains close to the intervention supported by the evidence.
If we protect local engagement and problem-solving time alongside visible patrol,neighbourhood policing retains the components associated with confidence gains.

neighbourhood-policing hotspot-policing public-confidence evidence-based-policingpolice-policy

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Evidence & Practice

Nitazenes in the UK: What Police Leaders Need to Know

01The problem

Nitazenes are established in the UK drug market, but the 2026 evidence does not show they are replacing heroin wholesale. The immediate risk is a partly hidden adulteration market affecting opioid users and people buying counterfeit medicines or other drugs.

02What the evidence says

The NCA recorded 359 nitazene-related deaths in the UK in 2025, down from 435 in 2024, with close to 1,000 recorded since June 2023; the 2025 total may rise as tests are finalised.
National Crime Agency, National Strategic Assessment 2026
The same assessment says the heroin market was stable in 2025 but that suppliers are highly likely to continue fortifying heroin and illicit pharmaceutical drugs with synthetic opioids.
National Crime Agency, 2026
Government preparedness guidance says naloxone remains effective against potent synthetic opioids and recommends tested local response plans, adequate supply and multi-agency escalation arrangements.
Home Office / OHID / NPCC (2025)

03If we act

If we test the local synthetic-opioid incident plan with police, public health, ambulance, treatment services and the coroner or toxicology route,roles and escalation thresholds are known before a cluster develops rather than improvised during one.
If we assure naloxone availability and officer confidence in recognising and responding to opioid overdose,first responders can restore breathing while ambulance care is on the way and local stock shortages are identified early.
If we join non-fatal overdose, seizure, drug-checking and toxicology intelligence into the local drug information system,the area has a chance to detect a dangerous batch before the clearest signal becomes a rise in deaths.

drugssynthetic-opioidsnitazenes harm-reductionpublic-healthcounty-linespolicingpolicepolicy

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Evidence & Practice

‘Do You Understand?’ Is Not a Comprehension Test

01The problem

A yes/no question about understanding can allow police and courts to record apparent comprehension without discovering what the person has actually understood.

02What the evidence says

PACE Code C requires appropriate adults to help vulnerable people understand rights and communicate with police.
PACE Code C
Current judicial guidance is explicitly concerned with effective communication and participation for people appearing in courts and tribunals.
Equal Treatment Bench Book, February 2026 update

03If we act

If we use a brief explain-back check for cautions, rights and conditions where misunderstanding would materially affect fairness or compliance,officers can identify the specific misunderstanding instead of recording an unsupported assumption of comprehension.
If we create an escalation route when comprehension remains doubtful,rephrasing, interpreters, appropriate adults or other adjustments are considered before the process simply moves on.

custodyPACEvulnerabilitycommunicationprocedural justiceappropriate adult

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Evidence & Practice

Police Custody Legal Advice: Why Suspects Still Say No

01The problem

The law gives detainees a strong right to free legal advice, but the practical safeguard depends on how the right is explained and how an apparent waiver is recorded. A tick-box offer can be legally compliant while still giving leaders little assurance about the quality of the decision.

02What the evidence says

PACE Code C says all detainees must be told they may consult a solicitor privately and that free independent legal advice is available.
Home Office — PACE Code C 2023, para 6.1
Code C prohibits officers from intentionally dissuading a person from obtaining legal advice and requires custody staff to point out telephone advice where a detainee declines an in-person consultation.
Home Office — PACE Code C 2023, paras 6.4–6.5
The official Notice of Rights tells detainees explicitly that asking for a solicitor does not make it look as though they have done anything wrong and that they may change their mind later.
Home Office — Notice of Rights and Entitlements

03If we act

If we audit the wording and recording of legal-advice waivers across custody suites,leaders can distinguish genuine informed choice from inconsistent local practice.
If we require staff to explain the practical alternatives already in Code C, including telephone advice and the ability to request a solicitor later,detainees make the decision with a more accurate understanding of what accepting advice entails.
If we investigate material differences in waiver rates between suites or groups rather than assuming variation is random,forces can identify whether process, delay, communication or vulnerability is affecting access to the safeguard.

custodylegal advicePACE law procedural justicepolicingpolice

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Evidence & Practice

Police Burnout and Fatigue: What Leaders Can Actually Change

01The problem

Police wellbeing programmes can focus heavily on individual resilience even though organisational stressors, supervision and fatigue are materially associated with mental wellbeing and work performance.

02What the evidence says

A systematic review covering 15,150 officers found strong evidence linking organisational stressors with occupational stress, psychological distress and emotional exhaustion.
Purba & Demou (2019)
College guidance says supportive supervision is associated with improved wellbeing and lower job stress and emotional exhaustion.
College of Policing
National police wellbeing work identifies fatigue from shift patterns, long hours, stress and untreated sleep disorders as a performance and safety concern.
College of Policing / Oscar Kilo

03If we act

If we measure workload, abstractions, overtime, rest and fatigue alongside sickness and welfare referrals,leaders can identify organisational conditions that precede wellbeing problems rather than relying only on downstream indicators.
If we train supervisors to recognise deterioration, hold useful wellbeing conversations and secure adjustments or specialist support,support is more likely to arrive before performance or health deteriorates further.
If we review shift and demand design where fatigue is persistently concentrated,the force treats fatigue as a system risk rather than an individual failure to cope.

police wellbeingburnoutfatiguesupervisionmental healthshift workevidence-based-policing

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Evidence & Practice

Fuel Theft Is Rising Again. The Police Response Still Does Not Add Up

01The problem

Fuel taken without payment is rising as pump prices increase, but police and industry data still mix deliberate drive-offs, later payment and repeat offending. Treating them as one low-value category hides both innocent mistakes and the cases that most need investigation.

02What the evidence says

Forecourt Eye reported a 20% rise in incidents and a 48% rise in their value during the five months after 28 February 2026, estimating a UK daily cost of £194,000 from a sample of 550 forecourts.
ITV News, 3 August 2026
A 2025 Freedom of Information investigation covering 33 forces found that an average of 86% of reported cases were closed without a suspect; Sussex recorded the highest cited rate at 94%.
Forecourt Trader, 12 May 2025
Home Office counting rules say a reported forecourt making-off must not be treated as purely civil and will usually be recorded unless credible evidence shows an innocent mistake.
Home Office Crime Recording Rules, April 2026

03If we act

If we separate deliberate drive-offs, declared no-means-of-payment cases and later-paid mistakes at the point of reporting,civil recovery can deal with genuine debts while criminal indicators reach investigators instead of disappearing inside one mixed category.
If we check registration, CCTV and repeat-location data before closing a case, and join linked reports into one series investigation,forces concentrate effort on repeat offenders, false plates and organised theft rather than repeatedly assessing each loss as an isolated low-value job.
If we audit no-suspect closures and publish whether the evidence supplied by retailers was viewed and checked,chief constables can distinguish proportionate screening from cases being closed before an available line of enquiry was followed.

crimeevidence-based-policing lawnewspolicepolicingretail-crime

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Evidence & Practice

Neurodiversity in Policing: The Retention Problem Leaders Can Fix

01The problem

Neurodivergent police employees report both useful strengths and significant workplace barriers, while requested adjustments are frequently not implemented consistently.

02What the evidence says

A UK survey of 117 autistic and/or ADHD police employees found widespread reports of both benefits and challenges, with requested adjustments frequently not made.
Tromans et al. (2023)
College of Policing guidance treats workplace adjustments as part of recruiting and retaining colleagues with disabilities and neurodiversities.
College of Policing (2025)

03If we act

If we measure adjustment requests, implementation time, retention and progression outcomes for neurodivergent staff,leaders can identify whether support failures are structural rather than relying on individual anecdotes.
If we train supervisors to identify role-specific barriers and agree practical adjustments without stereotyping the condition,officers are managed against the actual requirements of the role and their individual needs.
If we evaluate new adjustment panels, passports and neurodiversity toolkits against workforce outcomes,forces learn which inclusion practices change retention and performance rather than simply recording implementation activity.

neurodiversity ADHD autismdisabilitypolice workforcereasonable adjustmentsretentionleadership

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Evidence & Practice

Seeing Is No Longer Believing: How Synthetic Evidence Could Convict an Innocent Man

01The problem

Generative systems can now create convincing synthetic video and audio, while UK government analysis says deepfake detection remains an early-stage capability. The resulting evidential problem runs both ways: fabricated media can mislead, and genuine media can be dismissed as fake.

02What the evidence says

The National Center for State Courts reports that a California court detected AI-generated audio and video submitted as authentic witness evidence in Mendones v. Cushman & Wakefield in 2025.
National Center for State Courts — AI-generated evidence is a threat to public trust in the courts (2026)
Europol identifies evidence tampering, fraud, disinformation and erosion of trust as law-enforcement risks from deepfakes. Its current report does not support a reliable global count of deepfakes in circulation.
Europol — Facing Reality? (current version, 2024)
The Ministry of Justice's 2025 call reviewed the presumption that computer systems operate correctly and asked whether AI- or algorithm-generated evidence should fall within reform, distinguishing it from material merely recorded by a device.
Ministry of Justice — Presumption that computer evidence is reliable: call for evidence (2025)

03If we act

If we recover and preserve the native recording from the original system before its configured retention period can overwrite relevant footage,the court gets an original it can test, and a manipulated clip can be caught before it convicts an innocent person.
If we test the independence of every corroborating clip rather than counting angles that agree,juries are protected from manufactured certainty, because a second camera angle is now one more prompt away.
If we build access to forensic experts and press for reform of the computer-evidence presumption,disputed footage gets tested rather than believed or waved away, protecting the innocent from fakes and society from the liar's dividend.

artificial intelligencedeepfakesdigital evidencecriminal justiceCCTVdigital forensicsjury

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Evidence & Practice

Neighbourhood Policing Works — When Forces Protect What Makes It Work

01The problem

Neighbourhood policing can improve public confidence, but the effect depends on implementation quality and on combining visibility, engagement and problem-solving rather than treating any one component as sufficient.

02What the evidence says

College of Policing guidance says systematic-review evidence shows neighbourhood policing significantly improves public confidence and trust overall.
College of Policing (22 April 2025)
The College says the strongest model combines targeted visible presence, structured community engagement and problem-solving.
College of Policing neighbourhood policing evidence review
Hot-spots policing has a strong crime-control evidence base, but evidence about its effects on community relations is smaller and depends partly on how officers police the hot spot.
College of Policing — Hot spots policing

03If we act

If we protect enough neighbourhood capacity for teams to deliver visible patrol, engagement and problem-solving together,the intervention being delivered more closely matches the one supported by the evidence.
If we target neighbourhood activity using local harm, demand and confidence data rather than distributing it evenly,scarce capacity is concentrated where the potential gain is greatest.
If we measure public perceptions and problem outcomes alongside patrol hours and engagement counts,leaders can distinguish activity from effect.

neighbourhood policing public confidence evidence-based-policingproblem solvinghot spots policingprocedural justice

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Leadership & Culture · 3

Leadership & Culture

Plant seeds, not billboards: how evidence-based policing should grow

01The problem

Evidence-based policing stays specialist if staff can spot problems but do not know where to take an unfinished idea or cannot get time and help to develop it.

02What the evidence says

The College says EBP can be used by everyone in policing and that specialist problem-solving and analytical support should be accessible across a force.
College of Policing — EBP; organisational infrastructure and capability
Hertfordshire's Prevention First model includes a portal for ideas and operational issues, a central hub that scans evidence and a leadership programme designed to support problem solving.
College of Policing — Prevention First
Bedfordshire Police has implemented an annual route for staff ideas designed around psychological safety and development, but the College currently classifies the practice as untested.
College of Policing — Bedfordshire Dragons' Den (2026)

03If we act

If we publish one clear route for unfinished ideas and make the receiving role responsible for a constructive first response,staff know where to take a thought before it becomes a polished project or disappears into local workarounds
If we give a small mixed cohort protected time and direct access to analytical, research and practitioner support,questions can be developed collectively rather than leaving the person who spotted the issue to solve it alone
If we share short accounts of what was tried, what failed and what was learnt through force, regional and national networks,useful learning can move beyond the original team and unsuccessful tests are less likely to be repeated elsewhere

evidence-based-policing leadershippolice-cultureorganisational-learningproblem-solvingprofessional-curiositycommunities-of-practiceneurodiversity

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Leadership & Culture

Martyn's Law 2026: what police and venues need to know

01The problem

Martyn's Law has been enacted and detailed Home Office guidance now exists, but the main duties have not commenced and the SIA's final regulatory guidance is still being completed, leaving police and venue operators with a preparation period in which roles can easily be misunderstood.

02What the evidence says

Qualifying premises generally enter the standard tier at 200 to 799 people and the enhanced tier at 800 or more; qualifying events require 800 or more people and additional access-control conditions.
Terrorism (Protection of Premises) Act 2025 and explanatory notes
The substantive duties are not yet in force. The SIA says commencement is expected in spring 2027, with the exact date to be confirmed after the necessary legal steps.
Security Industry Authority (17 July 2026)
The SIA is the regulator. Its final section 12 guidance on how it will use information, inspection and enforcement powers is planned for autumn 2026.
Security Industry Authority (16 June 2026)

03If we act

If we map likely enhanced-tier premises and qualifying events and forecast demand for counter-terrorism security advice,forces can concentrate specialist advice where the compliance and protective-security questions are most complex before commencement.
If we brief neighbourhood, licensing, events and command teams on what the Act does and does not make the police responsible for,businesses receive consistent advice and the SIA's regulatory role is not blurred with ordinary policing relationships.
If we review force premises and agree a contact and information-sharing route with the SIA before the regime goes live,forces are prepared both as public bodies that may operate premises and as partners likely to encounter regulatory and security information.

martyns-law counter-terrorismpublic-policypolicinglawcrime-preventionleadershipbusinessprotective-security

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Leadership & Culture

Henry Nowak Murder: What the Court Found and What the IOPC Is Investigating

01The problem

Public discussion of Henry Nowak's murder risks collapsing two separate processes into one. The sentencing remarks explain what the court found about Digwa's murder and deception; the IOPC is separately investigating whether two attending officers may have breached professional standards.

02What the evidence says

The sentencing judge recorded that Henry's chest wound was unsurvivable and that he would not have survived however quickly first aid, CPR or expert medical treatment had been provided.
Sentencing remarks, R v Digwa (2026)
The judge found that the officers honestly believed there were grounds to arrest Henry and identified Digwa's convincing false narrative to police as an aggravating feature of the murder.
Sentencing remarks, R v Digwa (2026)
On 1 July 2026 the IOPC said two first-arriving officers were under investigation for potential gross misconduct over duties, use of force and discreditable conduct; one may also have breached authority, respect and courtesy.
IOPC (1 July 2026)

03If we act

If we separate court findings from misconduct allegations in briefings, training and public communication,officers, leaders and the public can understand what has actually been established and what remains under investigation.
If we use the case to test first-response decision-making where medical risk and competing accounts collide,learning can focus on recognition, prioritisation and reassessment without pretending the outcome in this case was medically reversible.
If we revisit the article and organisational learning when the IOPC investigation concludes,any final lessons about professional standards are based on the completed evidential process rather than speculation.

crimecourtsevidence-based-policing lawnewspolicepolicingaccountability

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Data Stories · 2

More or Less: Five Habits for Reading Police Statistics

01The problem

Police statistics can look definitive before anyone checks what was counted, what the denominator was or whether the comparison supports the claim being made.

02What the evidence says

More or Less is designed around interrogating numbers used in news and public debate rather than accepting the headline interpretation.
Open University / Tim Harford

03If we act

If we ask for the numerator, denominator, definition and comparator before repeating a rate,statistical claims are less likely to outrun the method that produced them.
If we separate correlation from causal evidence in performance discussions,leaders avoid treating coincident trends as proof that a police intervention caused the change.
If we scrutinise numbers that confirm existing beliefs at least as hard as numbers that challenge them,analytical standards do not change according to whether the conclusion is convenient.

More or Less Policing evidence-based-policingstatisticsnumbersmediadata

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Should Britain Drill More in the North Sea?

01The problem

The North Sea debate is routinely framed as a choice between 'drill and get rich' and 'stop drilling'. That obscures the real decision: whether individual projects add enough security, employment and fiscal value to justify their costs in a mature, declining basin.

02What the evidence says

Rosebank remains under environmental review, with further-information consultation running into August 2026; Jackdaw's project record was also updated with further environmental information in July.
Offshore Petroleum Regulator for Environment and Decommissioning
The NSTA's 2025–26 annual report describes a basin in transition in which oil and gas production, decommissioning, carbon storage and offshore-energy infrastructure increasingly overlap.
NSTA Annual Report and Accounts 2025–26
In July 2026 HMRC published the proposed Oil and Gas Revenue Levy, a permanent high-price levy intended to replace the Energy Profits Levy when that regime ends.
HMRC (13 July 2026)

03If we act

If we publish a standard appraisal for each major North Sea consent covering production, tax, employment, emissions and infrastructure value,political claims can be tested against the same evidence before each decision.
If we distinguish new exploration, existing licensed developments and tie-backs to existing infrastructure,the public can see whether a policy change is genuinely opening new acreage or deciding the fate of projects already in the system.
If we treat demand reduction and domestic production as separate energy-security levers,ministers can compare the security gained from producing more with the security gained from needing less imported fuel.

energy policynorth seaoil and gasenergy securityclimatepublic policy

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Technology & Innovation · 5

Technology & Innovation

Police Electric Vehicles: What the 2030 Petrol Car Rules Mean

01The problem

The 2030 and 2035 vehicle policies are often reduced to a simple 'petrol car ban'. Police fleets are more complicated: different roles have different payload, endurance and charging requirements, and there is no blanket police exemption.

02What the evidence says

The government reconfirmed that new purely internal-combustion cars are to be phased out from 2030, with qualifying hybrids permitted to 2035 and all new cars and vans intended to be zero emission from 2035.
Department for Transport (2025)
The legal special-purpose-vehicle category includes specified vehicle types such as armoured vehicles; it is not a general exemption for every emergency-service car.
Regulation (EU) 2018/858
Government charging statistics are now updated monthly, but a public charging network does not by itself provide the guaranteed availability required for emergency response fleets.
Department for Transport (updated July 2026)

03If we act

If we classify each vehicle role by duty cycle, payload, pursuit requirement and secure charging opportunity before choosing a powertrain,forces electrify roles that already fit while retaining justified alternatives for genuine capability gaps.
If we use telematics to set minimum deployment charge and site charging capacity for each operational role,charging becomes a managed readiness system rather than an informal expectation.
If we develop common national test specifications for response, pursuit, armed and converted vehicles,policing can share testing costs and give manufacturers a clearer statement of operational demand.

technologyfleetroads policingarmed policingnet zerodata

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Technology & Innovation

How Worthing Became the 'Shoplifting Capital of the UK'

01The problem

Worthing was repeatedly presented as the UK's shoplifting capital using police-recorded crime rankings that could not, on their own, measure underlying offending.

02What the evidence says

Contemporary national and local reporting turned a recorded-crime ranking into a broader claim about Worthing itself.
Radio Worthing (17 February 2025) and The Sun (4 April 2026)
Sussex Police says One Touch Reporting was intended to increase reporting and led to an expected and significant increase in shop-theft reports.
Sussex Police (22 April 2026)
Sussex Police reported Worthing town-centre shoplifting averaging 28 offences a month from March 2025 to February 2026, compared with 47 a month in the equivalent 2024–25 period.
Sussex Police (22 April 2026)

03If we act

If we publish an expected-recording-effect note when introducing a reporting-improvement scheme,readers can distinguish a change in recording from a proven change in underlying offending.
If we publish the denominator, time period and reporting caveats when responding to crime rankings,comparisons are harder to overstate and easier for journalists and the public to test.
If we track recorded offences alongside retailer reporting, repeat offending, harm and enforcement outcomes,leaders have a broader basis for judging whether conditions are improving or deteriorating.

More or Less Policing evidence-based-policing public-confidencestatisticsmediadata

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Technology & Innovation

Police confidence and media coverage: what 25 years of headlines can—and cannot—tell us

01The problem

Public-confidence surveys and media coverage are often discussed as though they measure the same phenomenon, but this project finds that a long-run Guardian headline series and the ONS local-police rating followed materially different paths.

02What the evidence says

The ONS Crime Survey found 49% of respondents rated local police as doing a good or excellent job in the year ending March 2025, down from 62% in the year ending March 2015.
Office for National Statistics (2025)
The project dataset, built principally from Guardian Open Platform headlines, shows negative headline language rising across much of the period rather than reproducing the same mid-2010s confidence peak.
Project analysis using Guardian Open Platform
The dataset is headline-only and overwhelmingly single-source, and its dictionary tone measure is descriptive rather than a validated measure of public sentiment.
Project methodology; Guardian Open Platform documentation

03If we act

If we track media framing separately from survey confidence and label each measure for what it actually records,leaders avoid mistaking press language for public opinion and can see when the two signals move differently.
If we expand future analysis across multiple UK outlets before making claims about the British press as a whole,findings become less dependent on one publication's editorial choices and archive availability.
If we evaluate communications activity against confidence, satisfaction or behavioural outcomes rather than headline tone alone,forces can distinguish improved coverage from genuine changes in public experience or trust.

public confidencemediatrustmetropolitan policedatastatisticsMore or Less Policing

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Technology & Innovation

Football and domestic abuse: what the ‘38% rise’ headline leaves out

01The problem

A memorable 38% statistic has come to stand in for a more complicated evidence base on England football, alcohol and domestic abuse, risking prevention activity being aimed at the scoreline rather than the periods and mechanisms most consistently associated with increased harm.

02What the evidence says

A 2014 study across three World Cups found police-reported domestic abuse 38% higher on days England lost and 26% higher on days England won or drew than on comparison days.
Kirby, Francis & O'Flaherty (2014)
West Midlands data from 2010 to 2019 found an estimated 47% increase in alcohol-related domestic abuse following England victories, with no measurable increase in incidents not flagged as alcohol-related.
Trendl, Stewart & Mullett (2021)
Greater Manchester data found incidents fell during matches then increased afterwards, peaking around ten hours after kick-off; early games and alcohol-recorded male perpetrators drove the cumulative increase.
Ivandić et al. (2024)

03If we act

If we plan safeguarding and response capacity around the match and post-match risk window using local demand data,resources are directed at the period in which the evidence suggests risk and reporting are most likely to increase.
If we include alcohol-related prevention and licensing considerations in tournament planning rather than treating defeat as the principal trigger,operational activity is aimed at a mechanism supported by the later English studies.
If we retire unsupported national claims and publish the geography, period and outcome behind any statistic used in campaigns,public warnings remain credible and the evidence can be checked rather than repeated as a slogan.

More or Less Policing safeguarding violence against women domestic abusestatisticsalcoholevidence-based-policing

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Technology & Innovation

How to Read Police Statistics Without Fooling Yourself

01The problem

Police rates can appear precise while concealing choices about what was counted, who was placed in the denominator and what comparison is being made.

02What the evidence says

Home Office stop-and-search rates use resident population and explicitly warn about transient populations and variation within police force areas.
Home Office (2025)
Official guidance shows that geographical composition can materially affect stop-and-search disparity calculations and their interpretation.
Race Disparity Unit (2021)

03If we act

If we state numerator, denominator, period and geography beside material police rates,readers can understand what the figure actually measures before acting on it.
If we test alternative plausible explanations for a change in recorded data before calling it an operational success or failure,reporting and recording effects are less likely to be mistaken for changes in underlying harm.

More or Less Policing stop and searchstatisticstransparencydata

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